S&P 500 Erases War Losses as Software Leads the Rebound

Monday's most important move wasn't just that stocks rose. It was how they rose. The S&P 500 climbed 1.02% to 6,886.24, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.23% to 23,183.74, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 301.68 points, or 0.63%, to 48,218.25, according to CNBC. Reuters reported the rally came as investors looked past failed U.S.-Iran talks and focused instead on hopes for de-escalation and the start of first-quarter earnings season via Reuters.

The intraday reversal mattered. The Dow had been down more than 400 points earlier in the session before buyers stepped back in, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both recovered from midday losses, CNBC reported. That tells you the market is still willing to buy cyclically sensitive risk when oil backs off its highs and diplomacy, however fragile, remains on the table.

For traders, the actionable point is breadth and leadership. Reuters said nine of the 11 major S&P sectors finished higher, with financials and technology out front, via Reuters. This was not just another defensive bounce. It was a growth-led rebound with earnings season about to test valuations.

Oracle, Palantir and Big Tech Carried the Tape

The standout stock action came from software. Oracle surged nearly 13% and Palantir Technologies rose more than 3%, helping power the broader advance, according to CNBC. In a market still digesting inflation risk and energy volatility, that kind of move says investors are rotating back toward secular growth rather than hiding exclusively in defensives.

Financials were also in focus as earnings season began. Goldman Sachs reported first-quarter net revenue of $17.23 billion, net earnings of $5.63 billion and diluted EPS of $17.55, with annualized return on common equity of 19.8%, according to the bank's earnings release. But the stock reaction was softer than the headline numbers suggested.

Reuters said Goldman shares fell nearly 4% despite the earnings beat as investors focused on weaker fixed-income trading, a reminder that this market is rewarding clean revenue quality and punishing any sign of softness beneath the surface, according to Reuters. That's a useful signal ahead of Tuesday's reports from JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo, which Morningstar flagged as the next major earnings catalysts.

Hot CPI Keeps the Fed in No Hurry

The market may have rallied Monday, but last Friday's inflation print is still setting the macro backdrop. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said March CPI rose 0.9% month on month and 3.3% from a year earlier, while core CPI increased 0.2% on the month and 2.6% annually, according to the official BLS release. Energy was the story: the energy index jumped 10.9% in March and gasoline surged 21.2%, accounting for nearly three quarters of the monthly increase.

CNBC noted that the inflation shock was heavily tied to the Iran conflict and the related energy spike, while underlying inflation stayed comparatively contained. That's important for Fed pricing. It argues against an immediate policy panic, but it also means policymakers can stay patient as long as oil remains a live risk.

CNBC reported that markets had already been pricing little chance of a rate cut through the rest of 2026 even before Monday's rebound, despite Fed officials in March signaling a tilt toward a quarter-point reduction at some stage, with timing highly uncertain, via CNBC. The takeaway is straightforward: unless energy rolls over decisively or growth weakens fast, the Fed has cover to sit tight.

Treasury Yields Ease, But Not Enough to Change the Macro Message

Bond yields edged lower in choppy trading Monday, according to Reuters, but the level still matters more than the daily move. The 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.29% on Tuesday, according to Trading Economics, after ending last week near 4.31% to 4.34%. CNBC had the 10-year at 4.339% and the 2-year at 3.852% on April 6, before the latest CPI release and renewed oil volatility, via CNBC.

So yes, yields have come off the highs a touch. But they are still high enough to keep pressure on rate-sensitive sectors and high enough to reinforce the idea that the bond market is not pricing a clean disinflation story. If anything, the message from rates is that traders are treating the March CPI spike as partly energy noise, but not noise they can safely ignore.

Oil Stays Near $100, Gold Holds Its Bid

Crude remains the market's pressure point. West Texas Intermediate settled at $99.08 a barrel on Monday and Brent finished at $99.36, according to CNBC. Reuters likewise said oil pared gains to settle below $100 a barrel, a key psychological level after the weekend's failed talks and blockade headlines, via Reuters.

The fact that crude finished below triple digits helped equities rebound, but traders shouldn't confuse that with calm. Monday's price action still reflected a market trying to handicap whether the Strait of Hormuz disruption becomes a longer-duration supply shock. As long as WTI and Brent are hovering around $100, inflation expectations and risk appetite will remain headline-driven.

Gold was little changed to modestly lower on the day, according to Reuters, while spot references elsewhere put bullion around $4,708 to $4,733 an ounce on April 13, including updates from USA Today and Finance Magnates. Gold's resilience, even without another explosive move higher Monday, says safe-haven demand hasn't gone away.

Crypto Is Holding $70,000, but It's Not Leading Risk

Crypto remains relevant, though not market-defining for this session. Bitcoin was around $71,189 early Monday, according to Fortune, while other market snapshots showed it opening near $70,741 and Ethereum near $2,192 after both fell more than 3% from the prior day's open, according to Yahoo. Charles Schwab's market update also showed Bitcoin near $71,010, down 3.37%, in Monday morning trading via Schwab.

The read-through is that crypto is acting more like a high-beta macro asset than a safe haven. Holding the $70,000 area in Bitcoin matters technically, but unless digital assets break sharply in either direction, they are secondary to oil, yields and bank earnings in Tuesday's broader cross-asset setup.

What to Watch Today

Bank earnings before the bell: JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo are due Tuesday, with Bank of America and Morgan Stanley to follow later in the week, according to Morningstar.
Oil around $100: Watch whether WTI can stay below triple digits. Another push higher would quickly feed back into inflation and Fed pricing.
Treasury yields: The 10-year near 4.29% is manageable for equities. A move back toward the mid-4.3% area would tighten financial conditions again, according to Trading Economics.
Middle East headlines: Traders are still reacting in real time to developments around U.S.-Iran negotiations, the blockade of Iranian ports and any signal on Strait of Hormuz traffic, as reported by Reuters and CNBC.
Risk leadership: If software and large-cap tech keep leading while financials confirm with decent earnings, Monday's rebound has a chance to stick. If leadership narrows or oil reclaims the tape, expect another choppy session.